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MLB: Seattle run line system looks like sure fire winner
2010-06-29

According to bookmakers we’ve spoken with on the subject, only a sparse percentage of baseball bettors dabble in run line wagering. Money line and totals wagering dominates the baseball scene. Still, you have to wonder, if bettors were aware of powerful run line systems like the one affecting the Mariners-Yankees game for Tuesday, would this pattern change? Let’s take a look at the key angle favoring Seattle from FoxSheets and how it could impact the contest. The M’s are +1.5, -150 dogs according to Sportsbook.com.

Here is the key betting system:

Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +36 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-13 over the last 5 seasons.)

The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -176

The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.2)

The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (72.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6 units).

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.9 units).

Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-37, +37.1 units).

Typically I don’t endorse strategies that indicate to back a team with a bad bullpen, but the history of success on this system is just too much to pass up. With a 6-0 mark already in 2010, StatFox has uncovered an angle that has won 43 of its last 47 games, nearly automatic. As you can see as well, the straight up record of this underdog team is 34-13 in that same time span, with our hot starting pitcher holding the opponent to just 3.1 runs on average.

Of course the pitcher of note in our system is Mariners’ left-hander Cliff Lee, one of baseball's best (6-3, 2.39). According to source, Lee may be on the trading block again with the Mariners well out of contention. The 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner would be a prize acquisition as he's turning in a spectacular season with 76 strikeouts and four walks.

"I feel good," said Lee, who hasn't issued a walk in 37 innings. "I like where I'm at."

Lee pitched a six-hitter in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on June 18, and followed that up by scattering nine hits and striking out nine Wednesday in an 8-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.

The left-hander is facing New York for the first time since going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two starts for Philadelphia in last year's World Series. Including one outing in the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four games in the Bronx - two at the new Yankee Stadium.

In what figures to be a thrilling pitching matchup, Lee will be opposed by Phil Hughes, who has enjoyed some extra rest before he tries to win his sixth straight start. New York (47-28) opted not to pitch the 24-year-old Hughes (10-1, 3.17 ERA) during its six-game road trip last week in order to limit his innings. He's one behind Tampa Bay's David Price for the AL lead in victories.

"I don't think I've pitched well enough to really have that record," Hughes told MLB.com. "I've pitched some good games, but the offense has been great. Some of them, I've been lucky and have tried to just keep us in the game. Yeah, I'm surprised, but it's great. Every time I take the hill, I want to win."

Hughes is 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last loss, and 6-0 with a 3.71 ERA in seven outings at home heading into his second career start against Seattle (31-44).

With the money line set at Yankees -155 according to Sportsbook.com, this will be just the second time this season that Lee has pitched as an underdog. He lost a 2-1 decision at Tampa Bay as a +135 dog on May 16th. The StatFox Power Line indicates the line should be Yankees -145.




MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 5/21-5/23
2010-05-15

A check of the standings in each league after a month a half reveals some disturbing things, most notably a lack of parity in the American League and a lack of any true quality in the National. Eight of the 14 teams in the junior circuit find themselves 5.0 games or more back already, with Tampa Bay, New York, and Minnesota setting the pace. In the N.L., the best team at this point, the Padres, is scoring just 4.3 runs per game. Of course, a lot can change between now and October, starting with this weekend’s action. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in each league over the next three days and cite a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of the 15 series’ that you can put to use.
In the junior circuit, the showcase series puts the Twins in New York for a 3-game set with the Yankees. Trips to the Big Apple have been anything but enjoyable for Minnesota over the last two years as they are 0-9 in that span. Overall, the Yankees have taken 16 of 20 games from the Twins. The visitors are playing well of late though and have caught the Yankees at 22-12, as the latter have dropped four of their last five games. Elsewhere, the East leading Rays will welcome struggling Seattle to town. Since owning the West lead on April 21st, the Mariners are just 4-14. Finally, in Toronto, the Blue Jays host the Rangers, who have moved to the top of the West by winning six of their last seven games. Three of those wins by were a single run as they are winning with both clutch hitting and timely pitching.
The N.L. slate features an intriguing battle out west between Los Angeles and San Diego from Petco Park. The Padres lead the division with a 22-12 mark but have begun to take notice of the Dodgers, who have won their last four games headed into Friday’s series opener. L.A. has scored 28 runs in its 4-game winning streak but will be hard pressed to put up that kind of production against a Padres team that is allowing 3.0 runs per game on the season, easily best in baseball. The series in Cincinnati this weekend between the Cardinals and Reds is also noteworthy, as the teams are separated by just a half game at the top of the Central standings headed into the set. The Reds have won a league high 5-straight games while St. Louis has dropped three in a row and can take first place in the division for the first time in a long time with a series win. For good measure, Cincy boasts a 25-9 record at home in the month of May over the last three season. Finally, in Colorado, the Rockies will be hosting the Nationals, who we must put a shout out to, as Thursday’s 14-6 win put Washington 5-games over .500, despite the fact that they are being outscored by 0.2 runs per game.
Now, here is a look at some of the Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to put to use as you handicap all of this weekend’s action:
PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 2.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
ST LOUIS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 10-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 19-29 (-16.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at ATLANTA
ARIZONA is 5-15 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.3, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 28-18 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at COLORADO
WASHINGTON is 11-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)
LA DODGERS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 16-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.9, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-23 (-16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at TORONTO
TORONTO is 25-49 (-26.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at DETROIT
BOSTON is 33-53 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 35-7 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.2, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 4-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)