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The Giants assistant GM said he thinks theyre in the back seat on Jon Lester
Evans suggested that the Cubs and Red Sox are both ahead of the Giants in the bidding. Which is a curious thing to say when youre still, theoretically, in the bidding. It could be an exercise in expectation management, of course. It could mean anything. But if Evans is being straight up, it could mean one suitor is eliminated.
Now, Lester, seriously: make up your dang mind.
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Odds to Win 2015 Kentucky Derby
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MLB: Powerful bullpen system shows Nationals as play
With manager Lou Pinella announcing his accelerated retirement on Sunday, it’s become official…the Cubs’ season is an utter mess, and the immediate future, meaning Monday night’s game in Washington, doesn’t look any better. Chicago is up against one of the more powerful bullpen betting systems that StatFox has to offer. It seems as if bettors are jumping on this opportunity too, as they have pushed what was an opening line of Washington -145 at Sportsbook.com all the way up to -160. It could go higher too, so turn your attention to this one before you miss out on a good price.
If you haven’t been following the Cubs lately, the 2010 season has become a train wreck. The roster has been decimated by trades, injuries, and overall poor play. At 23-games under .500, Pinella’s former team won just five of his last 25 games. In the most recent loss, yesterday at home to Atlanta, the Cubs’ bullpen was ravaged for nine runs in three innings of work. You have to wonder whether or not the 16-5 defeat may have made up Pinella’s mind earlier than expected.
At the same time, the Nationals’ bullpen has been pitching very well of late, and comes into Monday night’s contest with a respectable 3.55 ERA & 1.338 WHIP overall. In the last five games, the relief staff has yielded just three runs in 15 innings. That success leads to what has been a highly profitable StatFox Super Situation that could impact Monday night’s game. It reads as follows:
Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games.
(59-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -120.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (11-1, +8.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +15.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-89, +29.4 units).
In the Cubs' last visit to Nationals Park, they swept a Washington club playing its first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman. The Cubs are hoping for similar results in this season's trip to the nation's capital as they begin the post-Lou Piniella era. With coach Mike Quade taking over as interim manager, Chicago begins a six-game trip Monday against the Nationals.
With Quade moving from the third-base coaching box to the dugout for the rest of the year, the Cubs give the ball to rookie right-hander Casey Coleman (0-1, 7.82 ERA).
Coming off a 2-4 trip that ended with Sunday's 6-0 loss to Philadelphia, the Nationals (53-71) will counter with Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.06) as they open a seven-game homestand. The veteran right-hander, though, is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts at Nationals Park after going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his first 10 home outings this season.
Hernandez, 11-6 with a 3.84 ERA against Chicago, receives among the lowest run support in the NL at 3.39 per game. Washington has scored four runs in his last three outings.
Washington has won four of six against Chicago since last season's matchup at Nationals Park.
Monday night’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET as part of a trimmed down betting board of 10 games for the night at Sportsbook.com.
MLB: Seattle run line system looks like sure fire winner
According to bookmakers we’ve spoken with on the subject, only a sparse percentage of baseball bettors dabble in run line wagering. Money line and totals wagering dominates the baseball scene. Still, you have to wonder, if bettors were aware of powerful run line systems like the one affecting the Mariners-Yankees game for Tuesday, would this pattern change? Let’s take a look at the key angle favoring Seattle from FoxSheets and how it could impact the contest. The M’s are +1.5, -150 dogs according to Sportsbook.com.
Here is the key betting system:
Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +36 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -176
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (72.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-37, +37.1 units).
Typically I don’t endorse strategies that indicate to back a team with a bad bullpen, but the history of success on this system is just too much to pass up. With a 6-0 mark already in 2010, StatFox has uncovered an angle that has won 43 of its last 47 games, nearly automatic. As you can see as well, the straight up record of this underdog team is 34-13 in that same time span, with our hot starting pitcher holding the opponent to just 3.1 runs on average.
Of course the pitcher of note in our system is Mariners’ left-hander Cliff Lee, one of baseball's best (6-3, 2.39). According to source, Lee may be on the trading block again with the Mariners well out of contention. The 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner would be a prize acquisition as he's turning in a spectacular season with 76 strikeouts and four walks.
"I feel good," said Lee, who hasn't issued a walk in 37 innings. "I like where I'm at."
Lee pitched a six-hitter in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on June 18, and followed that up by scattering nine hits and striking out nine Wednesday in an 8-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
The left-hander is facing New York for the first time since going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two starts for Philadelphia in last year's World Series. Including one outing in the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four games in the Bronx - two at the new Yankee Stadium.
In what figures to be a thrilling pitching matchup, Lee will be opposed by Phil Hughes, who has enjoyed some extra rest before he tries to win his sixth straight start. New York (47-28) opted not to pitch the 24-year-old Hughes (10-1, 3.17 ERA) during its six-game road trip last week in order to limit his innings. He's one behind Tampa Bay's David Price for the AL lead in victories.
"I don't think I've pitched well enough to really have that record," Hughes told MLB.com. "I've pitched some good games, but the offense has been great. Some of them, I've been lucky and have tried to just keep us in the game. Yeah, I'm surprised, but it's great. Every time I take the hill, I want to win."
Hughes is 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last loss, and 6-0 with a 3.71 ERA in seven outings at home heading into his second career start against Seattle (31-44).
With the money line set at Yankees -155 according to Sportsbook.com, this will be just the second time this season that Lee has pitched as an underdog. He lost a 2-1 decision at Tampa Bay as a +135 dog on May 16th. The StatFox Power Line indicates the line should be Yankees -145.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 5/21-5/23
A check of the standings in each league after a month a half reveals some disturbing things, most notably a lack of parity in the American League and a lack of any true quality in the National. Eight of the 14 teams in the junior circuit find themselves 5.0 games or more back already, with Tampa Bay, New York, and Minnesota setting the pace. In the N.L., the best team at this point, the Padres, is scoring just 4.3 runs per game. Of course, a lot can change between now and October, starting with this weekend’s action. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in each league over the next three days and cite a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of the 15 series’ that you can put to use.
In the junior circuit, the showcase series puts the Twins in New York for a 3-game set with the Yankees. Trips to the Big Apple have been anything but enjoyable for Minnesota over the last two years as they are 0-9 in that span. Overall, the Yankees have taken 16 of 20 games from the Twins. The visitors are playing well of late though and have caught the Yankees at 22-12, as the latter have dropped four of their last five games. Elsewhere, the East leading Rays will welcome struggling Seattle to town. Since owning the West lead on April 21st, the Mariners are just 4-14. Finally, in Toronto, the Blue Jays host the Rangers, who have moved to the top of the West by winning six of their last seven games. Three of those wins by were a single run as they are winning with both clutch hitting and timely pitching.
The N.L. slate features an intriguing battle out west between Los Angeles and San Diego from Petco Park. The Padres lead the division with a 22-12 mark but have begun to take notice of the Dodgers, who have won their last four games headed into Friday’s series opener. L.A. has scored 28 runs in its 4-game winning streak but will be hard pressed to put up that kind of production against a Padres team that is allowing 3.0 runs per game on the season, easily best in baseball. The series in Cincinnati this weekend between the Cardinals and Reds is also noteworthy, as the teams are separated by just a half game at the top of the Central standings headed into the set. The Reds have won a league high 5-straight games while St. Louis has dropped three in a row and can take first place in the division for the first time in a long time with a series win. For good measure, Cincy boasts a 25-9 record at home in the month of May over the last three season. Finally, in Colorado, the Rockies will be hosting the Nationals, who we must put a shout out to, as Thursday’s 14-6 win put Washington 5-games over .500, despite the fact that they are being outscored by 0.2 runs per game.
Now, here is a look at some of the Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to put to use as you handicap all of this weekend’s action:
PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 2.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
ST LOUIS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 10-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 19-29 (-16.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at ATLANTA
ARIZONA is 5-15 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.3, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 28-18 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at COLORADO
WASHINGTON is 11-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)
LA DODGERS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 16-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.9, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-23 (-16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at TORONTO
TORONTO is 25-49 (-26.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at DETROIT
BOSTON is 33-53 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 35-7 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.2, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 4-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: MLB Top Weekend Power Trends (9/4-9/6)
It’s the Labor Day Holiday Weekend, and while this time of the year is best known in sports circles for the kickoff of the football season, it is also important in baseball. Pennant races are heating up and with only four weeks left in the season, there’s only so much time for those chasing to gain ground. With a full slate of games on tap once again for the weekend, we are here to look at all of the key action, plus deliver this week’s Top StatFox Power Trends for you to capitalize on in your wagering.
The wildcard races are the closest of any chase for playoff positioning in both leagues. In the American League, Boston continues to set the pace, but Texas is just 3-games back. The Rangers also have their sights set on the A.L. West title though, trailing the Angels by 3-1/2 games. All three of the aforementioned teams will be on the road this weekend, with Boston visiting Chicago, Texas traveling to Baltimore, and the Angels making a visit to America’s heartland to take on Kansas City. The Halos have swept the Royals in six games this season, while the Red have taken 14 of the last 19 in the battle of the Sox.
Elsewhere in the Junior Circuit, the league’s hottest team, the Yankees, winners of seven straight games headed into the weekend, take a trip north of the border to Toronto. This figures to be the ultimate battle of hot & not, as while New York has put together that nice winning streak, the Jays have dropped seven of eight and seem to have packed it in for the year. The Bronx Bombers have taken 10 of 13 games overall in this head-to-head series this year, including five of six in Toronto.
In the National League, there isn’t a single series in which two winning teams are playing one another, so this figures to be a weekend where only upsets will make noise. Each of the three divisions shows a comfortable margin between first & second place so the leaders will just try to continue to set the pace. Philadelphia is in Houston, St. Louis travels to Pittsburgh, and the Dodgers welcome San Diego to town.
The one N.L. race still in play is that in the wildcard race, where the Rockies and Giants are separated by just a single game. Colorado has the easier series on paper this weekend, taking on Arizona at home, while San Francisco is in Milwaukee. The D-backs have played better of late though, coming into this set on a 6-2 run. They have also played the Rockies tough in 2009, splitting 12 games. The Giants and Brewers have also split six games this year, but Milwaukee is not playing well, having slipped out of the race over the last month. If either of the two wildcard front runners slip, Atlanta & Florida, both 4-games out, will look to capitalize. The Marlins are in Washington, and the Braves are hosting the suddenly hot Reds.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends that figure to be in play for the next few days…
FLORIDA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 13-42 (-21.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 5-26 (-18.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at NY METS
CHICAGO CUBS are 27-38 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.8, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
CINCINNATI at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 11-16 (-10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN FRANCISCO at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 12-27 (-15.5 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.7, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at COLORADO
COLORADO is 89-58 (+23.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.4, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN DIEGO at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 50-27 (+17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.8, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at TORONTO
TORONTO is 7-22 (-16.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was TORONTO 4.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 14-25 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at TAMPA BAY
DETROIT is 12-32 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
LA ANGELS at KANSAS CITY
LA ANGELS are 18-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 6.6, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-16 (-11.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was BOSTON 4.7, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 5-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 3*)