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MLB: Powerful bullpen system shows Nationals as play
2010-08-23
With manager Lou Pinella announcing his accelerated retirement on Sunday, it’s become official…the Cubs’ season is an utter mess, and the immediate future, meaning Monday night’s game in Washington, doesn’t look any better. Chicago is up against one of the more powerful bullpen betting systems that StatFox has to offer. It seems as if bettors are jumping on this opportunity too, as they have pushed what was an opening line of Washington -145 at Sportsbook.com all the way up to -160. It could go higher too, so turn your attention to this one before you miss out on a good price.
If you haven’t been following the Cubs lately, the 2010 season has become a train wreck. The roster has been decimated by trades, injuries, and overall poor play. At 23-games under .500, Pinella’s former team won just five of his last 25 games. In the most recent loss, yesterday at home to Atlanta, the Cubs’ bullpen was ravaged for nine runs in three innings of work. You have to wonder whether or not the 16-5 defeat may have made up Pinella’s mind earlier than expected.
At the same time, the Nationals’ bullpen has been pitching very well of late, and comes into Monday night’s contest with a respectable 3.55 ERA & 1.338 WHIP overall. In the last five games, the relief staff has yielded just three runs in 15 innings. That success leads to what has been a highly profitable StatFox Super Situation that could impact Monday night’s game. It reads as follows:
Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games.
(59-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -120.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (11-1, +8.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +15.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-89, +29.4 units).
In the Cubs' last visit to Nationals Park, they swept a Washington club playing its first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman. The Cubs are hoping for similar results in this season's trip to the nation's capital as they begin the post-Lou Piniella era. With coach Mike Quade taking over as interim manager, Chicago begins a six-game trip Monday against the Nationals.
With Quade moving from the third-base coaching box to the dugout for the rest of the year, the Cubs give the ball to rookie right-hander Casey Coleman (0-1, 7.82 ERA).
Coming off a 2-4 trip that ended with Sunday's 6-0 loss to Philadelphia, the Nationals (53-71) will counter with Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.06) as they open a seven-game homestand. The veteran right-hander, though, is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts at Nationals Park after going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his first 10 home outings this season.
Hernandez, 11-6 with a 3.84 ERA against Chicago, receives among the lowest run support in the NL at 3.39 per game. Washington has scored four runs in his last three outings.
Washington has won four of six against Chicago since last season's matchup at Nationals Park.
Monday night’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET as part of a trimmed down betting board of 10 games for the night at Sportsbook.com.
MLB: Seattle run line system looks like sure fire winner
2010-06-29
According to bookmakers we’ve spoken with on the subject, only a sparse percentage of baseball bettors dabble in run line wagering. Money line and totals wagering dominates the baseball scene. Still, you have to wonder, if bettors were aware of powerful run line systems like the one affecting the Mariners-Yankees game for Tuesday, would this pattern change? Let’s take a look at the key angle favoring Seattle from FoxSheets and how it could impact the contest. The M’s are +1.5, -150 dogs according to Sportsbook.com.
Here is the key betting system:
Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +36 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -176
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (72.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-37, +37.1 units).
Typically I don’t endorse strategies that indicate to back a team with a bad bullpen, but the history of success on this system is just too much to pass up. With a 6-0 mark already in 2010, StatFox has uncovered an angle that has won 43 of its last 47 games, nearly automatic. As you can see as well, the straight up record of this underdog team is 34-13 in that same time span, with our hot starting pitcher holding the opponent to just 3.1 runs on average.
Of course the pitcher of note in our system is Mariners’ left-hander Cliff Lee, one of baseball's best (6-3, 2.39). According to source, Lee may be on the trading block again with the Mariners well out of contention. The 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner would be a prize acquisition as he's turning in a spectacular season with 76 strikeouts and four walks.
"I feel good," said Lee, who hasn't issued a walk in 37 innings. "I like where I'm at."
Lee pitched a six-hitter in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on June 18, and followed that up by scattering nine hits and striking out nine Wednesday in an 8-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
The left-hander is facing New York for the first time since going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two starts for Philadelphia in last year's World Series. Including one outing in the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four games in the Bronx - two at the new Yankee Stadium.
In what figures to be a thrilling pitching matchup, Lee will be opposed by Phil Hughes, who has enjoyed some extra rest before he tries to win his sixth straight start. New York (47-28) opted not to pitch the 24-year-old Hughes (10-1, 3.17 ERA) during its six-game road trip last week in order to limit his innings. He's one behind Tampa Bay's David Price for the AL lead in victories.
"I don't think I've pitched well enough to really have that record," Hughes told MLB.com. "I've pitched some good games, but the offense has been great. Some of them, I've been lucky and have tried to just keep us in the game. Yeah, I'm surprised, but it's great. Every time I take the hill, I want to win."
Hughes is 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last loss, and 6-0 with a 3.71 ERA in seven outings at home heading into his second career start against Seattle (31-44).
With the money line set at Yankees -155 according to Sportsbook.com, this will be just the second time this season that Lee has pitched as an underdog. He lost a 2-1 decision at Tampa Bay as a +135 dog on May 16th. The StatFox Power Line indicates the line should be Yankees -145.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 5/21-5/23
2010-05-15
A check of the standings in each league after a month a half reveals some disturbing things, most notably a lack of parity in the American League and a lack of any true quality in the National. Eight of the 14 teams in the junior circuit find themselves 5.0 games or more back already, with Tampa Bay, New York, and Minnesota setting the pace. In the N.L., the best team at this point, the Padres, is scoring just 4.3 runs per game. Of course, a lot can change between now and October, starting with this weekend’s action. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in each league over the next three days and cite a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of the 15 series’ that you can put to use.
In the junior circuit, the showcase series puts the Twins in New York for a 3-game set with the Yankees. Trips to the Big Apple have been anything but enjoyable for Minnesota over the last two years as they are 0-9 in that span. Overall, the Yankees have taken 16 of 20 games from the Twins. The visitors are playing well of late though and have caught the Yankees at 22-12, as the latter have dropped four of their last five games. Elsewhere, the East leading Rays will welcome struggling Seattle to town. Since owning the West lead on April 21st, the Mariners are just 4-14. Finally, in Toronto, the Blue Jays host the Rangers, who have moved to the top of the West by winning six of their last seven games. Three of those wins by were a single run as they are winning with both clutch hitting and timely pitching.
The N.L. slate features an intriguing battle out west between Los Angeles and San Diego from Petco Park. The Padres lead the division with a 22-12 mark but have begun to take notice of the Dodgers, who have won their last four games headed into Friday’s series opener. L.A. has scored 28 runs in its 4-game winning streak but will be hard pressed to put up that kind of production against a Padres team that is allowing 3.0 runs per game on the season, easily best in baseball. The series in Cincinnati this weekend between the Cardinals and Reds is also noteworthy, as the teams are separated by just a half game at the top of the Central standings headed into the set. The Reds have won a league high 5-straight games while St. Louis has dropped three in a row and can take first place in the division for the first time in a long time with a series win. For good measure, Cincy boasts a 25-9 record at home in the month of May over the last three season. Finally, in Colorado, the Rockies will be hosting the Nationals, who we must put a shout out to, as Thursday’s 14-6 win put Washington 5-games over .500, despite the fact that they are being outscored by 0.2 runs per game.
Now, here is a look at some of the Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to put to use as you handicap all of this weekend’s action:
PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 3-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 2.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
ST LOUIS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 10-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 19-29 (-16.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at ATLANTA
ARIZONA is 5-15 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.3, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 28-18 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at COLORADO
WASHINGTON is 11-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)
LA DODGERS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 16-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.9, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-23 (-16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at TORONTO
TORONTO is 25-49 (-26.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at DETROIT
BOSTON is 33-53 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 35-7 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.2, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 4-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Brewers’ strength befits crazy 15-0 Cubs’ trend!
2009-07-02
The word “disappointing” has been thrown about regularly regarding the Cubs’ 2009 season thus far as they begin a key four-game series at home against the Brewers on Thursday night. Still, a big holiday weekend against division-leading Milwaukee and Chicago will be right back in the thick of things. According to a 15-0 StatFox Matchup Power Trend, that may be just what’s in store.
The ironic thing about this all-important trend is that it negates the Brewers best strength to this point, their bullpen. Milwaukee currently owns the best WHIP in baseball at 1.247. This sets Chicago up for a matchup that has been very favorable of late. Take a look at the trend, a rare 5* angle from FoxSheets:
CHICAGO CUBS are 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.5, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 5*)
Of course, with the Brewers teetering right below that key 1.250 WHIP benchmark, this trend might only be in place for Thursday if Chicago smacks around Milwaukee’s relief staff in the series opener.
Milwaukee comes off a disheartening 1-0 setback to the Mets on Wednesday. In fact, after going more than two months without being shut out, the Brewers have been blanked twice in the last four days.
Perhaps now they can sympathize with the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs hope a return to Wrigley Field will help them snap out of a lengthy offensive funk, especially with the first-place Brewers in town for the first time this year to open a four-game set Thursday night.
Milwaukee had a chance to sweep each of its last two series, but lost 7-0 to San Francisco on Sunday and 1-0 to the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon.
After scoring a combined 16 runs in their first two games against the Mets, the Brewers (42-36) wasted a seven-inning, 12-strikeout effort from Yovani Gallardo in the finale. They went 0 for 7 with men in scoring position.
"We're in first place. That's all that really matters," outfielder Ryan Braun told the Brewers' official Web site. "We're playing well right now, and I think a lot of guys are starting to put together some quality at-bats. We're in pretty good shape."
The Cubs can't make the same claim. They've scored 129 runs since May 19, fewest in the majors over that span, and suffered six shutout losses to tie Atlanta for the most in that stretch. Chicago went 16-23 in those 39 games.
Last year, the Cubs (37-38) led the NL with 855 runs.
Despite its problems at the plate, Chicago is 3 1/2 games behind Milwaukee in the tightly bunched NL Central. Thanks to some strong pitching, the Cubs took two of three from Pittsburgh this week even though they managed seven runs in the series.
Chicago's offensive woes are a major reason why Ryan Dempster went 0-2 in his five June starts. He had a 3.23 ERA in the month, but received 2.35 runs of support per nine innings as the Cubs lost all five games.
Dempster entered the year with an 8-2 record and 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances against Milwaukee, but he is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts versus the Brewers in 2009.
The Cubs and Brewers split their first six meetings of the season, all at Miller Park. Milwaukee was 5-4 at Wrigley last year, an impressive mark considering Chicago went 55-26 at home.
Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) will be making his first career start against the Cubs, although he has pitched 5 1-3 innings of relief versus Chicago this year. He held the Cubs to a .177 average while posting a 2.55 ERA in 10 career relief appearances despite walking 10 in 17 2-3 innings.
Game time is 7:05 PM local time in Chicago.
MLB Top Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-22
We’re not quite to September yet and oddsmakers have already jumped the gun, having introduced pennant race betting lines into the fold early. So far in August, 59 games up through Thursday’s action had shown lines of -200 or higher on favorites. For the entire month of August in ’07, 29 games reached that point. There figures to be a number of more games with heavy chalk lines this weekend, especially in the N.L., where the two teams with the best records face off against a pair of the worst clubs. Here’s a look at those series’, along with the rest of the key action, plus our weekly feature highlighting some of the Top StatFox Power Trends affecting the weekend.
Of the six games on Friday with lines of -200 or higher, ALL of them are in the senior circuit. That is for good reason too, as most of the competitive series’ lined up are in the American League. The two N.L. matchups that figure to boast hefty lines for each game of the weekend are Washington at Chicago, and Pittsburgh at Milwaukee. In fact, the only series’ that figure to have any meaning to both teams are Los Angeles at Philadelphia, and Florida visiting Arizona.
However, in the junior circuit, there are several intriguing matchups. In Toronto, the Red Sox will take on the Blue Jays with the latter trying to make one last push to get back into the wildcard hunt. These teams will play 10 games against one another the rest of the way and 7-games separate them in the standings heading into this weekend’s series. Toronto has gotten hot of late, going 7-2 in its last nine games, but only managed to pick up a game in the standings during that stretch.
Elsewhere in the American League, division leaders will go head-to-head in Chicago, when the Rays hook up with the White Sox for three games. The hosts come off a 3-game sweep of Seattle and have now won six in a row at home to push their record at U.S. Cellular Field to 45-19. They are still just ½ game ahead of Minnesota though in the Central Division. Tampa meanwhile, has stretched its lead in the East to 4-1/2 games entering weekend play.
Finally, the Twins will head west to take on the Angels in Anaheim. The Halos are already counting down magic numbers, as their lead has ballooned to 15-games in the West. Their elimination number is 21. The Twins are ½ game out of the division race and tied for the wildcard lead. They have won seven of their L8 games while the Angels have only won twice in their last eight.
Here are this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends…
WASHINGTON at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-14 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)
LA DODGERS at PHILADELPHIA
LA DODGERS are 1-9 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was LA DODGERS 2.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
HOUSTON at NY METS
HOUSTON is 24-11 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was HOUSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
PITTSBURGH is 10-37 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.1, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at ST LOUIS
ATLANTA is 1-11 (-10.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was ATLANTA 3.4, OPPONENT 7.3 - (Rating = 2*)
CINCINNATI at COLORADO
COLORADO is 9-14 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was COLORADO 5.2, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)
FLORIDA at ARIZONA
FLORIDA is 29-13 (+18.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)
SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN DIEGO is 6-19 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*)
NY YANKEES at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 10-33 (-18.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.2, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at TORONTO
BOSTON is 4-13 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 3.8, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 3*)
CLEVELAND at TEXAS
TEXAS is 61-30 (+24.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was TEXAS 6.2, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
LEYLAND is 47-19 (+19.6 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more as the manager of DETROIT. The average score was DETROIT 6.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY at CHI WHITE SOX
TAMPA BAY is 8-27 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at LA ANGELS
MINNESOTA is 27-9 (+21.8 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 5*)
OAKLAND at SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 17-40 (-24.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.8, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)